Recently I shared the extraordinary first-time news:….
… more ESS than PV systems were sold in May!
Battery sales are booming, in terms of customer numbers.
Battery size is booming too.
Pocket the subsidy or buy a bigger battery?
The subsidy covers one-third of a typical ESS.
Customers could pocket the subsidy, in which case a $10,000 battery only costs them $6700.
Or they could use the subsidy to buy a bigger battery. A $10,000 outlay gets you a 50% larger battery than without the subsidy.
It appears they’re doing the latter.
Preliminary data shows in May the typical battery size leapt to 15kW.
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It makes sense to buy a big battery.
Consumers get one chance at the federal battery subsidy.
Product-market fit: a key factor in a brand’s success.
People are putting their subsidy towards a bigger battery unit.
But some brands are better suited to battery upsizing.
Stackable batteries are easy to add extra units to, but increasing battery size by 50% isn’t possible for monolithic batteries.
For example, the following chart (a new addition to our battery market subscription) shows ESS brand market share by battery capacity, with each colour representing a brand.
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You’ll need to subscribe to see which colour matches each brand.
But clever people could identify one brand from its 67% of 13kWh ESS, and 95% share of the 27kWh ESS.
It’s a costly exercise to double a 13kWh battery, that’s why <2% of the market is 27kWh.
In comparison, the brand represented in purple is represented in many size ranges.
That manufacturer is well placed to take advantage of the federal subsidy.
That manufacturer is likely one that retailers will choose.
SunWiz Battery Market Subscription
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(Much of which we can now do in every key global market)