Outlook 2024

Outlook 2024

If 14 years of solar industry analysis has taught me one thing, it is the impossibility of predicting future solar power deployment volumes. The monthly ups and downs of the solar coaster make predictions wrong far more often than they’re right. Still, us foolhardy analysts can’t help ourselves in making predictions – often simply so we have a well thought out answer to the question we’re most often asked: “how big will the market be this year.”

Before I address that question, it’s worth looking back at some predictions. This chart shows the various predictions made by consultants to the Clean Energy Regulator, predictions drawn upon when setting the STC target. These predictions not only confirm the adage that predictions are more often wrong than they are right, they vary considerably in magnitude and direction.

So, how close did SunWiz get to predictions? 

In January 2023, SunWiz predicted 2023 would be the worst year for energization of new solar farms since their rollout began in earnest. Unfortunately, we were proved correct, and things were worse than we anticipated. 

Our predictions for the sub-100kW market were right on the money.

This table shows:

  1. SunWiz STC market predictions were incredibly close to being correct, within 0.2%. 
  2. SunWiz LGC market predictions were much less accurate, but were still within 10%.

We’re predicting the market will be larger in 2024 than it was in 2023. 

How much larger, and in which segments?

The answers to that question are contained within our PV market outlook, a section within our 2024 Annual SunWiz Australian PV Market Report.

We examine all the drivers in the 2024 SunWiz Solar Market Outlook Report, drivers of increased demand, decreased demand, and supply constraints. Here’s some high-level considerations:

  • Our survey of industry leaders predicted modest growth in the STC market, though that growth will vary by time and segment. We agree.
  • Commercial will grow by more than residential PV.
  • Commissioning of Solar Farms will rise from 2023
  • Over the longer term the rooftop PV market will wane, but installers will incorporate energy storage, EV chargers, and other electrification & home automation to ensure revenue growth.

The 2024 SunWiz Solar Market Outlook Report is contained within the 2024 Annual SunWiz Australian PV Report, or available for separate purchase. Out now: