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Clearing House News

Clearing House News

The Clearing House is approaching the point of shifting in Q1, and could likely Clear in Q2

 

  • Currently there are  5,604 STCs Registered and Pending Transfer and there are also an additional 362k in the clearing house, plus 555k Pending registered
  • The quarterly surrender tally is 7,198k (35% of the 20,567k annual tally), meaning we are presently 677k short. Assume that on April 28 the same amount are pending registration (555k), making us 1232k short.
  • Last week’s creation rate was 335k = 47.8k / day
  • There are 42 days left of STC registration prior to the April 28 surrender date meaning 2007k STCs are likely to be created if current creation rates continue.  We assume that the number Pending Registration remains as it is (555k) – those Pending Registration on the 28th April will not be available for surrender.
  • This means we are likely to be ~775k in excess at the end of Q1. As the Clearing House presently has 362k in it, then we will be 413k above what we need without requiring the Clearing House.
  • In 13 weeks time (Q2 surrender), certificate creation rates of 335k are required to avoid the Clearing House falling into deficit, and creation rates of 362k are required to avoid drawing upon the current Clearing House level. These assume 100% of the theoretical surrender occurs in Q1 and Q2
  • The chart below shows the weekly STC creation in orange, and the rolling average of the past 3 weeks in blue. Indicated on the chart in grey are the lower levels required from here on in to avoid the Clearing House (upper line) and Deficit (lower line). Note that some percentage of recent week’s creation will ultimately end up Invalid due to Audit.

Other Exclusive STC news:

For the first time since 2011, Queensland has lost the “Sunshine State” badge. The graph above shows the proportion of national weekly STC creation by each state. Other than a brief moment when South Australia’s Feed-in Tariff closure sent STC creation skyrocketing, Queensland has dominated STC creation. However, since mid 2015 Queensland has been losing market share to New South Wales, with Victoria and Western Australia also picking up market share.